Date: November 3, 2026
The U.S. Treasury Department expects to borrow $618 billion in privately held net marketable debt during the fourth quarter of 2026, according to an estimate released Monday. The projection is $10 billion lower than the department's previous estimate in August.
The revised forecast primarily reflects a higher-than-expected cash balance at the beginning of the quarter. The Treasury ended September with $984 billion in cash, compared with the $950 billion balance assumed in its earlier projection.
The department said the lower estimate was partly offset by lower projected net cash flows. Excluding the effect of the higher opening cash balance, the current-quarter borrowing estimate is $24 billion higher than the August projection.
For the first quarter of 2027, covering January through March, the Treasury expects to borrow $800 billion in privately held net marketable debt. That estimate assumes an ending cash balance of $1 trillion on March 31.
The latest announcement also reported that the Treasury borrowed $742 billion during the July-September quarter, ending that period with $984 billion in cash.
The three figures reflect the department's recent and projected financing activity:
Q3 2026: $742 billion in actual borrowing.
Q4 2026: $618 billion in estimated borrowing.
Q1 2027: $800 billion in estimated borrowing.
The Treasury's borrowing estimates refer specifically to privately held net marketable borrowing. They should not be interpreted as direct forecasts of changes in the total national debt, which also includes debt held by federal government accounts and is measured using a broader definition.
The borrowing announcement comes ahead of the department's next Quarterly Refunding update, scheduled for Wednesday, November 4, at 8:30 a.m. The Treasury is expected to release additional details about its financing plans, including information relevant to the issuance of marketable securities.
The upcoming announcement will provide further insight into how the government plans to finance its borrowing requirements in the months ahead.
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Treasury Announces Marketable Borrowing Estimates, November 2, 2026.
